How big is Klal Yisroel?

In one of the courses I teach, I teach about statistics--how to analyze them, what they might really mean etc. I admit to a fascination with the population statistics that are available. Some of those statistics have relevance to Klal Yisroel.

What is the Jewish population of the United States? As of 2006, the Jewish population was 6,452,030. Every one of the fifty states has people who have self-designated themselves as Jewish. New York has a Jewish population of 1,618,320. This is 8.4% of New York's population, or approximately 1 in 10 people in New York are Jewish. By state, New York has the largest Jewish population, but across the country as a whole the majority of Jews do NOT live in New York.

What are we to make of these figures? First, the census records as Jewish only those who have self-designated themselves as such. This means that the figure includes people who are not "halachically" considered as Jewish. It includes those whose conversion to Judaism was not "k'halacha" but who consider themselves as Jewish. It includes those whose fathers are Jewish but whose mothers are not, but who consider themselves as Jewish. And yes, it includes all Jews, orthodox, conservative, reform and "other." So the "actual" Jewish population, halachically determined, is less than the figure given.

If you trace the census back some years you see a disturbing pattern emerging. There are less Jews today, as a percentage of the population and keyed to population growth, then there were 5 and 10 years ago. The 2006 figure seems large but it is a shrinking figure. The sad and alarming fact is that Klal Yisroel is losing members to intermarriage, to conversion and to "lack of interest."

I could not find any reliable statistics to show what percentage of the Jewish population is "orthodox." In one large survey Jews who attended a synagogue on a regular basis counted themselves as "religious" or "orthodox" regardless of the type of synagogue that they attend. That is, a reform Jew who goes to synagogue considers himself as religious.

There is also the very real problem of what constitutes "orthodoxy." For a few groups in Klal, those who are members of a Young Israel synagogue or who send their children to day schools rather than to "yeshivot" are very borderline orthodox, if at all. Using the word "frum" doesn't help either. What we do know, however, is that "true" "orthodox" Jews are in the minority of the Jewish population.

It has been said that "frum" Jews have larger families, thus ensuring that Klal Yisroel is growing. The figures don't support this contention: Klal Yisroel is shrinking here in the US. "Yes, but the "frum" element is growing" is the answer I get back. So, only the "frum" Jews count as part of Klal Yisroel?

Please think about that statement for a moment and think if that statement is really in concert with what our great sages thought and taught. What does Klal Yisroel actually consist of? Who is counted as a member of Klal? Are only learned Jews or "frum" Jews considered as Klal Yisroel? I'm going to go further with this in another posting but I really do want my readers to think, and think hard, about how they define "Klal Yisroel."