The Shidduch Crisis--A Hypothetical Case--#5

Previous postings in this thread have thrown out some statistical information and some possible conclusions that can be come to. Perhaps it would illustrate the difficulty in saying "there are more males then females" as it applies to frum Jews if we look at the following.

Let us look at a hypothetical community somewhere in New York City.

Year 2004: Number of children born: 100
Number of boys born: 49
Number of girls born: 51

Now let's break down those figures even further.
Number of boys born to yeshivish families: 9
Number of boys born to chasidish families:14
Number of boys born to modern orthodox machmir families: 12
Number of boys born to modern orthodox families: 14

Number of girls born to yeshivish families: 13
Number of girls born to chasidish families: 14
Number of girls born to modern orthodox machmir families: 12
Number of girls born to modern orthodox families: 12

Yes, in this year there were more girls born then boys; however, the distribution among the sub-groups was not equal. If, for arguments sake, this group of children would be required to marry each other, only two groups would have the "right" numbers for all members to get married. In the two remaining groups, one would have too many boys and one would have too many girls. (Please note: I am assuming here that members of a sub-group will only marry other members of the same sub-group.) However, in the real world people are not required to marry within their own age group. So let's look at some other hypothetical figures.

Year 2006: Number of Children born: 103
Number of boys: 51
Number of girls: 52

Now let's break down those figures even further.
Number of boys born to yeshivish families: 12
Number of boys born to chasidish families:14
Number of boys born to modern orthodox machmir families: 9
Number of boys born to modern orthodox families: 16

Number of girls born to yeshivish families: 17
Number of girls born to chasidish families: 14
Number of girls born to modern orthodox machmir families: 12
Number of girls born to modern orthodox families: 9

If, as the groups that are offering rewards for shadchanim who make matches for people no more than two years different in age, we assume that those girls born in 2006 are going to be looking for the boys born in 2004, will they find them? That depends.
2006 females 2004 males
Y-17------------ Y-9
C-14 ------------C-14
M-12 ------------M-12
MO-9----------- MO-14

For the Chasidishe and Modern Orthodox Machmir group there is a boy for every girl. As someone commented on one of the postings, this doesn't mean that they are all necessary going to want each other, but the theoretical possibility does exist. The modern orthodox girls are going to have a choice since there are more males then females. This means, however, that the "excess" number of boys will have to look at girls from a different year if they, too, are to get married. The girls in the yeshivish category are going to be in trouble. They outnumber the boys almost two to one for the years chosen to look at. They will have to look for boys outside of the two-year age difference that is being pushed. Even if they were willing to marry boys their own age, there weren't enough of the boys in 2006.

And yet, there were only 3 fewer males born then females for the years looked at. The disparity, the "crisis" if you must use the word, only affects part of the frum community, not all of it. And it affects the subgroups only if they 1)will not marry outside of their subgroup; 2) stick to a two-year age difference; 3)stick to finding mates only in their geographical area. Since actual births are always in flux, the numbers above might not be true for any given year other then the one looked at. 2005 might have been a year with more boys than girls--or not. 2007 could have seen a different spread of males across the various groups. And the spread could be different from one geographic location to another.

I only divided my groups into four distinct sub groupings. In reality Klal Yisroel has more then the four subgroups. In addition, some of the subgroups divide themselves into even further subgroups: for instance, various sects of Chasidus who do not intermarry with other sects. The figures were also only for one community; other communities, in other geographic locations may have shown different figures for the same years.

Conclusion: What can we learn from this hypothetical community seen across two years? For one thing, birth figures vary from year to year, from sub group to sub group. Artificially requiring a two-year age difference may or may not work, depending on the year and depending on the sub group. The more the various subgroups keep themselves isolated, the more problematic the number of births can become for some of the groups.

Let's stop talking about the shidduch "crisis" and let's stop blaming the "crisis" on what we believe to be a problem of too many girls and not enough boys. The male/female ratio only becomes a problem, and only for some subgroups, if we make it the ONLY criterion for marriage. There are a lot of other things which contribute in greater intensity and affect then how many girls and how many boys. But as long as we can point a finger at a number difference we don't actually have to sit down and think about the other factors that affect shidduchim.